While Jane Grey (#1) did handle the mile last time and improved her speed figure a few points, I’m not convinced that she’s necessarily better with added distance. She also got the front end that day, and this time there is plenty of other speed drawn to her outside. She’s arguably the horse to beat after handling the slop last time, but I preferred others.
Spiked (#7) makes plenty of sense as she cuts back to a mile after chasing home the undefeated Fingal’s Cave at 1 1/8 miles last time. She’s taken a step forward with each start and is an effective stalker who doesn’t necessarily need to be vying for the lead. They’re both logical contenders, but I wanted to go with a more experienced foe.
WASP (#2) doesn’t have the obvious upside of the aforementioned two, but she has been in solid form lately. I’m not going to hold her loss in the Yaddo against her, since she was put in the difficult position of dueling with heavy favorite Make Mischief on the front end. Prior to that she had run some nice races at this level. I like her running style for this race, because there’s plenty of speed signed on and she’s been effective closing from mid-pack. She also wouldn’t mind some moisture in the track, as she’s run well over sloppy surfaces before.
WIN: #2 Wasp, at 5-2 or greater