Belmont at the Big A | Race 9 | Post Time 5:13 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

Marketsegmentation (#5) was impressive in her career debut last December, earning a strong 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That number makes her competitive here without much improvement needed. She has to overcome a 10-month layoff, but this barn does have fantastic numbers off this kind of layoff. My one knock against her is that she did get an absolutely perfect trip on debut, and is stepping up into a tougher spot here. 

I actually think her Chad Brown stablemate is a little more interesting at a better price. Salimah (#4) was visually impressive in her Tampa debut earlier this year. She was off for a long time after that, but didn’t run as badly as it seems in her return last time. She got rank in the early stages and then proceeded to get floated wide around both turns. She never had a chance given the ground loss and may do better here second off the layoff. 

However, I can’t get past the likely pace advantage for DIAMOND HANDS (#1). I actually think she deserves to be favored here, and I’m not sure that will be the case with Marketsegmentation in the field. She ran very well when she was left alone up front last time, just getting run down by Bahamian Club, who came back validate that performance with a solid third-place finish in the Pebbles. Diamond Hands also ran better than it appears two back when she got the wrong trip, setting the pace inside during a time when closers had an advantage on that course at Belmont. For a 12-horse field, there really isn’t much pace signed on, and she’s just supposed to get clear early from her advantageous inside post position.

THE PLAY

WIN: #1 Diamond Hands, at 2-1 or greater

USE: 4