Dame Cinco (#6) figures to go favored here as she makes her first start off the claim for Jose Camejo, who is 15 for 46 (33%, $2.89 ROI) with that move over the past 5 years. She earned a strong speed figure last time, but I didn’t love the way she was drifting through the stretch while beating an inferior group. It’s unclear if she’s as proficient sprinting as she is going longer, and there is plenty of other speed signed on.
One of her main rivals is Beautiful Karen (#7), who is getting significant class relief after facing a better group of New York-bred allowance foes last time. She ran poorly in her return from the layoff, but was compromised by a stumbling start. I won’t be surprised if she fares better against this softer field for a barn that has been firing lately.
My top pick is BOSS CARA (#2). She also comes off a poor effort, but was badly overmatched in that open N1X allowance condition. Now she’s dropping to a realistic spot, and there’s plenty of speed signed on to set up her late run. She earned competitive speed figures against tougher company two and three back, and should be charging late if Eric Cancel can work out a trip. The price also figures to be fair given the low-profile connections.
WIN: #2 Boss Cara, at 2-1 or greater