I’m against some horses who could take money in this spot, particularly Jill’s a Hot Mess (#2) and Kokopelli (#9). The former benefited from a great pace setup when she was second at this level last time, whereas the latter just hasn’t really panned out since getting fantastic trips to win the first two starts of her career. I think there are others that are far more appealing, possibly at better prices.
My top pick is FONTANAFREDDA (#6). This filly was much the best when she won her N1X condition at Saratoga two back, overcoming an extremely wide trip to get the job done. While she crossed the wire fourth in her first start against winners, she was arguably best again that day. She got taken up soon after the start, and then was again forced to race wide. She was 3-wide early on the turn, and pushed out to race 4-wide approaching the stretch, losing significant ground in a race dominated on the front end. Things then got even worse when she was pushed out in the stretch, for which a rival was disqualified. She’s subtly shown significant improvement in recent starts, and I think she’s actually the horse to beat in this spot.
Social Whirl (#5) should appreciate the slight cutback to 6 furlongs after fading in her last start going seven-eighths. She was forced to miss the Saratoga meet, but was in decent form prior to that and just seems like a logical fit here.
The other runners that I want to use are Shesawildjoker (#3), who was compromised by a slow pace when unwisely rated last time, and Towering Orbit (#4), who showed affinity for grass against weaker last time but has to break more alertly after having gate issues in most of her recent starts.
WIN: #6 Fontanafredda, at 3-1 or greater