Saratoga | Race 1 | Post Time 1:05 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

Among those with experience, Xigera (#2) is clearly the horse to beat. She got a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her debut, which would be good enough to win most maiden races at this meet. She just had the misfortune of running into a pretty talented debut winner. Nevertheless, she showed good tactical speed and ran a professional race. She’s bred to be a nice turf horse as a half-sister to stakes winner Forty Under, and Phil Bauer is in the midst of a fantastic meet. I’m not against her, but I was interested in another experienced runner who could fly under the radar. 

FOREVER DIXIE (#10) began her career on dirt and didn’t run that badly. However, she did appear to take a step forward on grass last time despite achieving another fifth-place result. She had to steady off heels moving into the clubhouse turn and then proceeded to race 2 to 3-wide throughout over a course that was favoring rail runners. She still looked a little ungainly in upper stretch, but was hitting her best stride late once Leparoux finally set her down. Now Mark Casse adds blinkers to a filly who has been a little green and makes a rider switch to Tyler Gaffalione. Casse is 23 for 129 (18%, $2.45 ROI) with maiden third time starters in turf routes over 5 years. 

As for firsters, instead of the Chad Brown pair, I would rather use Wand (#4) and Mademoisellejackie (#9), who have both worked well on grass.

THE PLAY

WIN: #10 Forever Dixie, at 7-2 or greater

USE: 2,4,9