It’s quite clear that The Prince’s Spur (#8) is the horse to beat in this spot, even on the dirt. He’s run well in both starts, but I think the speed figures in each of his races could be a little inflated and I’m skeptical of him running well on the dirt again. I’m just not thrilled at the idea of taking a very short price on him when I see at least one viable alternative.
I had wanted to take Proven Hope (#5), but I’m happy to leave him on top in this off-the-turf race. I actually don’t mind the added distance based on the way he stays on late in his races, and I would hope that Javier Castellano can attain a forward position in a race that features a fairly murky pace scenario. He’s run fine on the dirt against much better competition and likely won’t be favored.
WIN: #5 Proven Hope, at 8-5 or greater