This auction-restricted maiden event features a couple of fillies with experience who could attract support. U Glow Girl (#6) seems likely to take money again after getting bet down to 2-1 favoritism in her career debut. She contested a fast opening quarter that day before fading and deserves some credit for finishing ahead of her other pace rivals. However, she lost by 13 1/2 lengths to a winner who was only 2 lengths off the lead at the first call. Perhaps Leave No Trace is just a talented specimen, but I want to see some confirmation of that race’s quality after the runner-up returned to regress on turf. Brad Cox is 32 for 105 (30%, $1.49 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years. These runners win, but they tend to get overbet.
I’m taking the other second time starter CRYPTO MAMA (#7). Kelly Breen is 9 for 30 (30%, $2.00 ROI) under those same parameters mentioned above for Cox. She may not have been facing the strongest field at Monmouth in her debut, but I liked the way she stayed on at the end. That pace was pretty slow relative to the final time, with all TimeformUS Pace Figures color-coded in blue. She was the only one to be passing runners late on a day that is also coded as favoring speed. She seems like one that will surely appreciate added ground as a daughter of Cloud Computing, and she gets a rider upgrade to Joel Rosario.
The other horse I’d use is firster Oh Donna (#4). I liked her OBS sale workout and Ray Handal has had some success with debut runners over the past few years.
WIN: #7 Crypto Mama, at 9-5 or greater