Saratoga | Race 4 | Post Time 2:49 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

Likely favorite #2 Naughty Gal seemingly needed her debut, in which she raced a bit greenly. This daughter of Into Mischief took a big step forward second time out, showing improved early speed before drawing off to an impressive 9-length victory. The time she ran matched the Debutante on the same card, and she earned a nice figure. A repeat of that performance will make her awfully tough, and she’s looked strong in her recent training. This early-developing type appears to have a size advantage over her competition at this stage. She picks up Luis Saez and goes out for a barn that knows how to win 2-year-old stakes at the Spa. She might have a bit of speed to deal with on the front end since debut winners #1 Apple Picker and #3 Promise of Hope both want to be forward as well. 

I’m taking a shot against the favorite with #4 SABRA TUFF. This filly showed some real tenacity in her debut, rushing up to take the lead after a slow start and fending of multiple challenges through the stretch. The runner-up returned to win her next start, improving her TimeformUS Speed Figure by 10 points. She moved up to stakes company in her second start at Churchill and used completely different tactics, rating in last early before slicing through the pack to run up into second through the stretch. She obviously has to get a little faster, but I like the versatility and willingness that this filly has displayed. It doesn’t hurt that she gets a rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz and lands in a spot where her experience should serve her well.

THE PLAY

WIN: #4 Sabra Tuff, at 5-2 or greater