This New York-bred maiden affair is a state-bred race in name only. Amazingly, all 10 runners in the main body of the field, plus the first also-eligible, are by Kentucky sires. Regardless of what you call it, this seems like a nice group of 2-year-olds. There’s certainly quality among those with prior experience, all of whom are contenders.
#1 Gambling Girl seems like the one most likely to move forward after getting shuffled back in the early stages of her debut before launching a nice stretch rally. She only finished a half-length behind #2 Recognize, who got a much better trip. Yet Bill Mott has better numbers with maiden second time starters than does Todd Pletcher, so perhaps the latter filly is also a candidate to improve.
Among those who have run, I’m most interested in #4 Danseur d’Oro. She faced males in her debut at Belmont, and did well to hang on for third after chasing the quick Andiamo a Firenze through the first 3 furlongs. She was also racing off the rail on a day when the inside may have been an advantage. She’s a major threat now facing her own gender.
Yet there are also some intriguing first time starters in this lineup. #6 Disruption and #5 Silver Skillet have worked well for leading 2-year-old barns Chad Brown and Christophe Clement, respectively.
The filly that interests me most is also eligible runner #11 Banterra, who draws into the field. Steve Asmussen has exceptional stats with his debuting 2-year-olds in Saratoga dirt sprints, going 14 for 52 (27%, $2.92 ROI) over 5 years. She worked a nice 10-flat furlong at the OBS April sale, and Practical Joke is a strong debut sire. She’s shown some talent in the morning, particularly in her most recent gate work when besting a workmate over 5 furlongs. She has ability and could get somewhat overlooked if she draws in.
WIN: #11 Banterra, at 3-1 or greater