This New York-bred stakes event came up much tougher than the Stallion Series stakes run last month at Belmont, won by #6 Dream Central, so I want to focus on horses coming out of different races.
#5 She’s a Mia seems like the horse to beat despite coming into this off three consecutive runner-up results. She ran very well in the Tepin against open company last year, and I thought both of her efforts at Belmont this summer were solid. However, I do get the feeling that added ground doesn’t really benefit her and do prefer her over slightly shorter trips than this. She can obviously win, but she’s going to take plenty of money going out for hot connections.
#3 Lisa’s Vision is another who could attract support, but I also have questions about her getting the distance. She finished well going 7 furlongs last time and has the tactical speed to work out a good trip here. She’s just a smaller, more compact type of filly who doesn’t convince me that routing will be better for her. Furthermore, Jorge Abreu has very poor numbers with his stretch-outs on turf.
I prefer #4 CLASSIC LYNNE. We haven’t seen her since she was a 2-year-old, but she put in a couple of nice turf efforts last year. She was compromised in her debut, which was a roughly run sprint. She then won on the stretch-out in her only other turf start, earning a competitive 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She’s a little dirtied up by surrounding dirt races, but I think her form stacks up well with this group. Joe Sharp is 11 for 32 (34%, $4.25 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs in turf routes over the past 5 years, so I’m expecting her to be ready to fire off layoff.
WIN: #4 Classic Lynne, at 5-2 or greater