Belmont | Race 8 | Post Time 4:40 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

There’s obviously some possibility that these last two races could come off the turf given the forecast for rain throughout Sunday afternoon. However, this is a situation where my top pick would be the same on turf and dirt. #9 Bella Principessa figures to appreciate this turnback in distance regardless of surface. I thought she actually ran pretty well in her return to turf last time, as she was never inside and made an early move to take over before getting passed late in a race that was falling apart. Most of her turf performances have come over route distances, but she proved that she was an effective sprinter on dirt this winter, so she should find this 7-furlong distance on grass to be perfect for her. I like that Joel Rosario stays aboard in a race where there’s a live Clement runner signed on. And she would also be logical if this race were transferred to the main track, as she possesses plenty of dirt efforts that make her the horse to beat. 

On turf, I would also want to use #4 Love’s Misery, who exits the same race. She got a great trip when she won on turf two back, but she did earn a strong 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort. I don’t want to be too hard on her for her loss last time, as 1 1/16 miles is probably too far for her and she was contesting a pretty strong pace that came apart. The turnback should suit her and there isn’t that much speed signed on in this field. 

The wagering entity that I’m against is the Steve Klesaris runner, though #1A Miss Delicious won’t be as short a price with entrymate #1 Winter Princess scratching. She has speed figures that point her out as a contender, but she hasn’t effectively sprinted on turf. #2 Tis a Pity looks like the other favorite, and I’m not wildly against her. She did briefly get held up in traffic before launching her rally last time. However, that was a weaker field and now she’s again a short price in a much more competitive affair.

THE PLAY

WIN: #9 Bella Principessa, at 3-1 or greater

UPGRADE: #4 Love’s Misery, at 5-1 or greater