Belmont | Race 8 | Post Time 4:40 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

This N2X allowance optional claimer features the East Coast debut of Grade 1 placed #5 Forest Caraway. This well-bred daughter of Bodemeister is a half-sister to popular NY-breds Holiday Disguise and Midnight Disguise. She began her career in California with Peter Miller, finishing second to the once highly regarded Princess Noor in the Del Mar Debutante. She looked like she had really taken a step forward when she returned from a layoff last August. However, she wasn’t able to back up that impressive return, losing her next two starts at short prices. Now she returns for Todd Pletcher with Miller on hiatus from training. Pletcher is 12 for 44 (27%, $1.43 ROI) first off a trainer switch in dirt sprints over 5 years. However, the barn is off to a slow start at this meet and she figures to take plenty of money. 

They all could have #3 Fouette to catch. It’s interesting to see this filly transferred to Linda Rice, who once had great success with Lady Sheila Stable, campaigning champion La Verdad among others. Yet she hasn’t sent out a runner for this owner in over a year. Fouette began her career with Steve Asmussen and showed some precocity. She’s always had trouble sustaining her speed, but looks pretty loose on the front end here, which makes her dangerous. 

I’m trying to beat both of these fillies with #7 ROSSA VELOCE. She already won at this level two back when racing for the $62,500 tag, so she’s still eligible to compete for the allowance condition. This NY-bred filly wasn’t beating much that day, but she did run better than it appears last time, chasing wide against a rail bias. She’s produced a string of solid efforts despite being ridden by low-profile riders for the better part of the last year. Now she’s getting a significant upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche while also making her first start off the claim for William Morey. The barn doesn’t have great stats with that move, but has sent out two live runners so far at this meet.

THE PLAY

WIN: #7 Rossa Veloce, at 5-2 or greater