Belmont | Race 1 | Post Time 3:05 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

With this race being moved to dirt, the temptation will be to default to the Todd Pletcher-trained #5 Charging Lady. She was meant for dirt in her career debut, went favored in that spot, and is a half-sister to Florida Derby runner-up Charge It. However, I’m not sure it’s that easy. This filly was actually pretty cold on the board to go off as high as 3-1 in that Keeneland maiden race given the weak nature of the field. She didn’t do any running, and her morning training has not given the indication that she possesses much ability. I’m looking elsewhere. 

All of the others are probably more turf types, but I’m going to stick with my original turf pick, #1 REIGN OF LOVE. This daughter of American Pharoah just looked like a filly who needed a race on debut. She’s a massive, rangy animal with a big stride on her, and those types just aren’t well suited to Gulfstream’s tight turns and hard ground. She finished up well that day and gives the impression of one who should relish longer distances. This race goes to 1 1/8 miles on dirt, and the surface switch is obviously a major question mark. Her dam won the G3 Matchmaker going 1 1/8 miles on turf, but this filly is also a half-sister to G2 Mother Goose winner Unchained Melody. Furthermore, Bill Mott is 10 for 47 (21%, $2.33 ROI) in off-the-turf maiden races at NYRA over 5 years, and 6 for 20 (30%, $2.78 ROI) in routes within that sample.

THE PLAY

WIN: #1 Reign of Love, at 2-1 or greater