Belmont | Race 7 | Post Time 4:14 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

There is quite a bit of pace signed on in this N1X allowance going 6 furlongs on grass. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with 3 horses vying for the early lead. The quickest of them all may be #10 High Front, who ships up from Florida for Jonathan Thomas. This 3-year-old was a very impressive debut winner back in January, dominating a field of maidens on the front end. He went down to defeat as the 2-5 heavy favorite in his second start, but he was a little unlucky that day, as he broke slowly and got shuffled back early. Breaking from the outside post this time, he figures to get a clear run to the front end. I think he’s dangerous, but I don’t always trust that 5-furlong form from Gulfstream to translate to New York. 

The horse to beat, in my view, is #7 Kawhi Me a River. This colt is a little unlucky to only have a single turf victory on his resume, as he’s had minor trouble in all three of his losses on this surface. He was unwisely rated after an awkward start in the Carle Place two back, and then last time found traffic when trying to rally in deep stretch. However, he’s coming back off the bench now, and John Terranova is 0 for 18 off 120-240 day layoffs on turf over 5 years. The good news is that he can take advantage of the projected favorable pace setup. Though that’s also true of another runner who will be a bigger price. 

#6 SUPPLY AND DEMAND has only made one start on the turf during his career and most will view it as a mediocre effort. However, I felt that the Widener turf had gotten a little speed-favoring during that final day of last year’s spring/summer meet. This gelding actually rallied well into a moderate pace, finishing just a half-length behind fellow closer Big Package, who would be an obvious favorite against this field. He’s achieved mixed results on dirt since then, but I like that Dutrow is now going back to turf. He’s a true closer in a race loaded with speed, is working well for this return, and gets reunited with his last winning pilot Javier Castellano.

THE PLAY

WIN: #6 Supply and Demand, at 7-1 or greater

USE: 7