Any race that features #4 Bail Out at a short price is a race that’s worth a look. He always runs well enough to win at this level, but he just never quite gets over that hump. This 0-for-25 maiden has tallied 10 second-place finishes during his career, including 4 consecutive runner-up results to close out his 2021 campaign. On the surface of things it looks like he’ll have trouble losing this race since there really aren’t any other horses with convincing turf form in here. However, he usually finds a way.
I think there’s one clear alternative, #5 AL’S PRINCE, who I regard as a very likely winner. This gelding will be making his first ever start on the turf, and I think he’s going to like it. His dam never won on the turf but handled the surface, and she is a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner Ultimate Eagle. Furthermore, this runner is by good turf influence Cairo Prince. Watching his prior races, he moves like a horse that should take to grass. Some may view the drop and surface switch as a negative, but Todd Pletcher is 6 for 25 (24%, $2.39 ROI) with maidens dropping in for a tag for the first time in their first turf attempts. I’m confident this is the right spot for him, and I have little interest in anyone else.
#6 King of Sting was mildly effective on turf last time, and at least showed some improved early speed on the surface. However, he’s facing a few tougher rivals here. #3 Left On Boylston has some turf pedigree as a half-brother to turf allowance type Turn of Events, though he would have to improve considerably with the surface switch.
WIN: #5 Al’s Prince, at 7-5 or greater