Aqueduct | Race 5 | Post Time 3:29 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

#4 Amity Island is the horse to beat as she drops back down in class to face claimers after a series of races against tougher company. She actually did quite well after getting claimed by Horacio De Paz last year, winning a NY-bred allowance event in December. However, she was simply overmatched in her last two starts, one of which came against stakes company. This drop makes sense for a filly who had previously been effective at similar levels. That said, it is possible that her form is tailing off and the connections could have waited for a $40k claimer to get written. 

I prefer her main rival #3 CHAYSENBRYN. Her recent speed figures are obviously inferior to those of Amity Island, but I think her overall form is better than it looks. Since she did well here last winter, she’s raced in a pair of sprints, one of which came following a 7-month layoff. Both of those races featured extremely slow paces, so she had little chance to get involved. She finally landed in a more favorable spot last time, but she didn’t get an ideal trip. She appeared to get discouraged behind a wall of horses around the far turn and didn’t find a clear path until the three-sixteenths pole. She really took off in the late stages once she found daylight and was quickly closing in on today’s rival #5 Sweet Missionlate. I prefer Chaysenbryn out of that race and think she can beat this field with another slight step forward.

THE PLAY

WIN: #3 Chaysenbryn, at 2-1 or greater

USE: 4,5