Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 4:30 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

This Hollie Hughes is essentially a two-horse affair between the expected favorites. 

Wudda U Think Now (#2) figures to attract support given his likely pace advantage. He should be the controlling speed here, depending on how much pressure Runningwscissors applies. Wudda U Think Now comes off a dominant score against optional claiming foes, winning by over 10 lengths. He got a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort, knocked down from a 125 final time number due to setting a very slow pace. In addition to having soft fractions in his favor, he also was riding a gold rail on Jan. 16, which almost surely enhanced his performance. He’s still dangerous here if getting back to his prior form, but I don’t want to take him as the favorite. 

I prefer MY BOY TATE (#4). This likable 8-year-old gelding is seeking his third victory in this race and he’s coming into it in great form. He got disqualified out of his victory in the Say Florida Sandy last time, but he ran the best race that day, slicing between horses to get up over his rival Lobsta. I don’t mind the cutback to 6 furlongs, and he has the tactical speed to not lose contact with his main rival early, as long as Manny Franco rides him with some awareness of the pace. I’ll take My Boy Tate’s strong finish over Wudda U Think Now’s tactical speed.

THE PLAY

Win: 4

Trifecta: 4 with 2 with 3,6