There are a couple of out-of-town shippers in this Ruthless who merit strong consideration. The local horses in this spot aren’t exactly the most formidable group, and there are things to recommend about both invading fillies who break from the outside slots. Shotgun Hottie (#7) could go favored as she makes her first start off a trainer switch to Bill Morey. While it might be a tall order to improve on the work of Tom Amoss, this filly already showed ability in her prior starts out of town. She was very game to win her two-turn debut two back at Churchill Downs after getting passed in the stretch. And then last time she just seemed to run off in the early stages and understandably tired late. That was a solid allowance field and she’s getting some class relief here. My one concern is that I’m not sure she really wants to go shorter. She strikes me as a true router given her physical size and scope, but these types can sometimes handle 7 furlongs.
I prefer KNOWING GLANCE (#6) to her inside, and she could go off at a better price. This filly is coming off a pair of resounding defeats, but she was meeting much tougher company in both of those races. That Fern Creek Stakes at Churchill Downs was a very tough affair, won by the talented Marissa’s Lady. I won’t fault her for losing to that field, and then last time she just wanted no part of two turns at Oaklawn. She also ran into a potential star in Martha Washington winner Secret Oath. She ran very well to win on Oct. 21 beating the much improved Girl With a Dream. I like the turnback, and I think her connections have found a favorable spot for her. I’d also consider Champagne Poetry, who seems best of the local horses. She did beat a strong rail bias when she won last time, but that was a weak maiden field.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,7
Trifecta: 6 with 1,7 with 1,4,5,7