Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:50 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

My Roxy Girl (#5) could go favored here as she steps up in class first off the claim for Linda Rice. Many players will be aware of the fact that she didn’t get the best ride or trip from Raul Mena last time out when she ran here just 7 days ago. She got caught in a pocket early and then found herself in traffic with nowhere to go when trying to split tiring runners in the stretch. It was an awkward trip and she arguably could have won that race with a clean run. However, it’s not as if she’s coming into this race with especially hidden form. She was running well prior to that for Juan Vazquez, and it seems unlikely that Linda Rice will improve a horse who already seemed to be firing on all cylinders. She can obviously win if she merely holds her form, but she’s moving up in class and there are more intriguing options at better prices.

Some may be willing to give another shot to More Moonshine (#3), but she’s run out of chances for me. She looked so promising at the start of her career, but she’s failed to recreate that debut performance in three subsequent starts. A couple of runners are switching from turf to dirt for the first time.

I’m also against Kept Waiting (#4), who could take money due to the fact that she goes out for the hot Rob Falcone barn. She obviously comes off a career-best effort, but I’m not convinced that she’ll handle the main track.

I am more optimistic about the dirt prospects of GOLDEN PLUME (#1), who also switches surfaces. While her dam Nebraska Tornado was a very good turf horse, she did earn an 86 Beyer on dirt in the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. She’s primarily produced turf horses, but this filly is by Candy Ride. Furthermore, she’s always trained exceptionally well on the dirt, appearing to relish this surface in the mornings. She doesn’t have an overly turfy running style, lacking a turn of foot, so perhaps she’ll take to dirt. Chad Brown actually has solid stats making this move with older runners.

THE PLAY

Win: 1

Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,6,7

Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 2,3,6,7