Speed had a distinct advantage last week at Aqueduct following the winter break. Despite changing weather and track conditions, horses who were able to secure the front generally outran their odds last week. A similar situation will make Chloe Rose (#1) dangerous in this spot, but I question whether she’s good enough to beat this field. I know some will be encouraged by the fact that the winner of her last race, Electric Youth, returned to win again here last week while rallying. However, some others did not run well out of that race, and her overall form is a little cheaper than some of her rivals here. She also has to negotiate the one-mile distance when she seems to be better sprinting.
Suspended Campaign (#2) is the horse to beat off her narrow loss at this level last time. Somehow dismissed at 11-1, she put in a strong rally from far back while just failing to catch the winner. Losing to Exotic West is no disgrace since she was a heavy favorite that day off some strong turf form. Suspended Campaign has the strongest resume coming into this, but she’s always at the mercy of pace given her propensity to break slowly.
I prefer BLUSHABLE (#6) out of that Dec. 12 affair. She was getting a good trip stalking the honest pace while racing along the inside. However, she got caught behind some tiring runners coming to the quarter pole and lost momentum while waiting for room. She eventually found a clear path and was finishing well late, suggesting that she had more to give. I like the outside draw for her on this occasion, and will hope that Dylan Davis can get her into a forward position. William Morey hasn’t started that many runners at NYRA, but he’s sent out some live ones lately, and is 7 for 16 (44%, $3.33 ROI) at all circuits over the past 21 days.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,5
Trifecta: 6 with 2,5 with 1,2,4,5