Analyze It (#2) is obviously the horse to beat as he seeks his first victory of the year while dropping in for a tag – albeit a high-priced one – for the first time. He’s lost at this level twice in a row, but he arguably ran the best race last time on Aug. 29. He got involved in a heated early duel with a longshot and couldn’t withstand the late charge of talented winner Breaking the Rules. A repeat of the 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned for that effort should put him in the winner’s circle here. He also should face a much more favorable pace setup this time without any other front-runners signed on. He’s the one to beat, but he’s not the most trustworthy runner at what figures to be a very short price.
Dreams of Tomorrow (#4) is the obvious alternative as he drops back into allowance company after trying the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch last time. He finished last of 4 in that spot, but he was chasing on the outside the entire way. His best effort gives him a chance, but he got a perfect setup when he won over this course back in May and he hasn’t really moved forward since.
I prefer SANCTUARY CITY (#3) at what figures to be a better price. The small field should allow this deep closer to sit closer to the pace than usual. He also is reunited with regular pilot Kendrick Carmouche, who guided him to three consecutive victories earlier this year. He was compromised by a slow pace two back in the Forbidden Apple and then last time had to wait in upper stretch before awkwardly altering course while the top two finishers came up the inside. He’s in the best form of his career right now and the one-turn mile at Belmont is perfect for him.
Trifecta: 3 with 2,4 with 1,2,4