November Rein (#6) comes in with the best speed figures, having run well to break her maiden two back at Saratoga before taking down the Seeking the Ante Stakes in her first start against winners. A repeat of either of those efforts will make her tough to beat here. However, she does face some additional challenges. She must stretch out a bit to 7 furlongs and do so while facing some intriguing new faces. The Seeking the Ante was a very weak stakes event, as her main rival on paper was basically eased, beaten over 20 lengths in third. Now she’s coming up against a couple of horses who showed real promise breaking their maidens.
One of those is Shesawildjoker (#5), who actually defeated November Rein at Belmont in June when both were making their debuts. She was overmatched in the Adirondack and now drops back in against New York-breds.
I’m most interested in the last-out debut winner CLASSY EDITION (#4). This filly only got a 71 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her debut victory, a number that doesn’t make her fast enough to contend. However, that was a nearly impossible race to gauge from a speed figure standpoint, as they sealed the track for that race only before harrowing it again for races later in the day. It seems like the track slowed down for that race, but it’s hard to know how much. Regardless of that, she ran like a filly with talent, as she sat just off the pace before inhaling the leaders with an impressive turn of foot. I think she has some ability and she seems like one who will appreciate the added ground. Todd Pletcher is 8 for 16 (50%, $2.83 ROI) with New York-bred last-out debut winners in dirt sprints for their second starts, and half of those winners were 2-year-olds.
Exacta: 4 with 2,5,6
Trifecta: 4 with 6 with 2,3,5