After scratches, Chad Brown has two entrants in this wide open Riskaverse, including the morning-line favorite Rastafara (#7). This filly is only coming off a maiden win, but she beat a strong field that day and may be putting it all together at the right time. I do think she’s the one to beat from the Chad Brown stable, as Amy C (#9) did not draw favorably here. She didn’t get a favorable trip in the Lake George, as she tried to close through traffic late, but I worry she could again be compromised by dynamics here.
The complicating factor in this race is the lack of early pace. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that Love and Money (#10) will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. However, I have doubts after she failed to hold on against allowance company last time. She did set a fast pace that day, but it was her own doing, as she ran off uncontrollably into the clubhouse turn. I’m skeptical that she can see out the trip over a turf course that took on plenty of rainfall last week.
I’m most interested in the Irish import KEEPER OF TIME (#2). Brendan Walsh isn’t necessarily known for success with European shippers, but he is a solid 6 for 34 (18%, $3.39 ROI) with foreign shippers in turf routes over the past 5 years. Her only substantial achievement overseas was a victory in the Grade 3 One Thousand Guineas Trial when last season at Leopardstown in April. She was sent off at 80-1 that day and was clearly a surprise, beating some classy foes in the process. However, her prior efforts weren’t terrible, and she had hinted at improved form in March at the Curragh when running on well with a difficult trip. She’s training forwardly for this and shouldn’t be bothered by a little give in the ground.
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 7,9,10
Trifecta: 2 with 7,9 with 4,7,9,10