I suppose Too Sexy (#2) could go favored here as the preferred Christophe Clement runner with Joel Rosario in the irons. She’s run reasonably well in both starts against winners on this circuit. She was negatively affected by a slow pace at Aqueduct two back and last time just ran into a superior rival, as stablemate Honey Pants finished with a flourish to beat her. Cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs shouldn’t both her at all and she brings some consistent speed figures to the table. I just feel that others possess a bit more upside.
I’m not as thrilled with some alternatives who could take money like Miner’s Queen (#4) and Rivendell (#10). The former did win going this distance at Churchill Downs last time, but that was a field of dubious quality. And Rivendell has to prove that she can handle this further cutback in distance after getting outkicked at 6 furlongs in her last couple of starts.
My top pick is a different Churchill shipper. MUSED (#6) has yet to hit the board in two starts in this country, but she’s subtly faced tougher fields each time. She was no match for subsequent graded stakes winner Gam’s Mission two back when trying a two-turn route. This filly, breaking from post 12, was too keen in the early stages and raced wide around both turns. She seemed much more comfortable cutting back in distance last time, but was negatively affected by a slow start in a race that featured a fairly slow early pace. Though they were straight 3-year-olds, the top 3 finishers in that last race are all stakes winners or stakes-placed and would be outright favorites in this spot. She’s apparently worked well since then and just needs a little pace to set up her late run.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,7
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 3,4,7,10