Supreme Aura (#2) is obviously the horse to beat as he returns at the same level at which he won last time. A repeat of that performance will obviously make him formidable against this short field, but he’s not exactly the most reliable favorite. While he’s run a solid set of speed figures since getting claimed by Rudy Rodriguez, he squandered a few good opportunities to win before ultimately coming out on top last time. He got sent off at a generous price that day and he’s going to be a fraction of those odds this time. Furthermore, he got an honest pace ahead of him on that occasion and took advantage, making a wide, sweeping run at the quarter pole.
This time the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a No Speed situation, which could work against him. The horse that figures to benefit most from that pace characterization is HEIRLOOM KITTEN (#4), who is comfortable racing on the front end. He was part of that quick pace on May 15 that helped set things up for Supreme Aura. He understandably faded in the late stages that day, but he bounced back nicely first off the claim for Rob Atras last time. Rated in a stalking position, he made a nice move to challenge the eventual winner in mid-stretch before settling for second. This time Manny Franco figures to send him to the lead and he figure to be especially dangerous from that position. He’s also handled wet tracks well in the past, and he’ll encounter a course with plenty of moisture in it.
Exacta: 4 with 1,2,5
Trifecta: 4 with 2 with 1,3,5