There are many ways to go in this highly competitive maiden special weight affair. Kreesa La Wrote (#11), Get the Candy (#4), and No Payne (#8) all figure to attract some support, and I don’t have particularly negative takes on any of them.
Kreesa La Wrote probably owns the best race of that trio, having finished second at this level to the talented Runaway Rumour two back. She comes off a poor effort last time, but that was going a mile, which may just be beyond her ideal range. She makes plenty of sense, but her margin for error is pretty slim.
No Payne ran well against a tough pace scenario when she defeated Get the Candy last November, and she has a race under her belt as a 3-year-old whereas Get the Candy is off a layoff. I slightly prefer the upside of Get the Candy, but I want to go to a different layoff horse for my top pick.
U SHOULD BE DANCING (#5) only made two starts on turf last year and both were solid efforts. She found 7 furlongs to be a little far in her grass debut last October, as she struck the front in midstretch and just couldn’t quite hang on in a race that was falling apart late. And then on Nov. 8, she set a very fast early pace and might have hung on had her rider been able to keep a straight path. Yet she bore out badly through the stretch and got nailed on the wire. I’m a little concerned about that tendency to drift, as she was also tough to handle in her two-year-old finale on dirt. That said, the time away may have done her well, and she has a right to insert herself into the mix with routine improvement.
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,8,11,12