Snicket (#3) is probably the horse to beat, but how can you take a short price on a runner who has run over the turf 6 times and finished second in all 6 of those attempts? While she’s earning speed figures that do put her in the mix once again, she hasn’t really moved forward at all since she first got on turf last summer. Her typical effort will probably get her a piece, but others are more appealing win candidates at better prices.
Kinky Sox (#2) makes a certain amount of sense as she cuts back to 7 furlongs, a distance over which she was a good second two back. However, she’s ridden by Irad Ortiz, whose mounts have been getting ridiculously overbet over the past several days.
I originally picked the now-scratched Masterof the Tunes on top, essentially in a coin-flip between two horses I wanted to key in this race. Therefore, I’m happy to scratch into FRACTORZATION (#11) as my top selection.
This filly figures to run better here after getting involved in a wickedly fast pace last time out. She basically had no chance after rushing through to contest that 21-flat opening quarter mile, especially considering that it was her first start off a lengthy layoff. She had been training well into that race, and I think she can do better here with a more moderate pace setup as the likely controlling speed. Seven furlongs is a bit of a question mark, but paces can often be more moderate going this distance than the shorter 6-furlong trip she tried last time. I also think she still has room for improvement as a daughter of The Factor, whose progeny tend to progress with age.
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 2,3,9
Trifecta: 11 with 3 with 2,5,8,9