Jersey Girl favorite Miss Brazil (#5) has chosen this Jersey Girl instead of Saturday’s Grade 1 Acorn, and is clearly the horse to beat against this group going her preferred 6-furlong distance. However, this race is no walk in the park, as she meets a small but select group of challengers. Miss Brazil does have a class and experience edge over her rivals, having proven her ability against the likes of Acorn winner Search Results, and even having beaten older horses last time out. Tony Dutrow has managed her well, and she’s delivered a strong effort in each of her dirt starts. However, she does her best running when she can control the pace, and there is plenty of other speed in here.
I’m not quite convinced that Miss Brazil is quick enough to outrun DR B (#2) to the front end, and if that Parx shipper is able to shake loose as the “speed of the speeds,” I believe she’s dangerous. Dr B wasn’t quite fully cooked when she made her debut late last year, but she returned this spring with a pair of excellent performances. She broke like a rocket in both of those blowout victories at Parx, setting comfortable paces before pulling away late. The waters obviously get much deeper here, but she ran some legitimate numbers out of town and goes out for a trainer who sends live runners to New York. I prefer these two contenders to some others who could take money.
The Louisiana-bred Australasia (#4) has compiled an admirable record, winning all five of her starts. However, she also gets a significant class test this time. She got a great trip to win that allowance race at Churchill Downs and will have to do better to beat this field.
Bella Sofia (#3) is the wild card in this spot as she tackles stakes company following a dazzling debut victory. She got a speed figure that suggests she can step right up and be competitive here, but I want to see her prove it given that she met a pretty lackluster group of rivals last time.
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with 3,4,6