This is actually a pretty interesting race on the dirt, since there are a few horses entered for turf who possess superior dirt form. Among those that could take money is First Line (#1), who was entered for turf but would probably be happy if this race comes off. He’s generally excelled against cheaper company in recent starts, and his improvement over his last couple of starts has mirrored the trend in the Orlando Noda barn’s performance. That said, he’s claimed by a sharp trainer in Mike Maker and handles a wet track. The problem is that he’s part of a coupled entry with a Main Track Only entrant and could get overbet.
Indian Counselor (#8) also makes sense based on his recent dirt form. He had been running so well on that surface that you almost wonder if Mertkan Kantarmaci entered him here anticipating that the race would come off the grass. He’ll be on my tickets, but I went to another dirt runner for my top pick.
PARADE FIELD (#12) has yet to win on the NYRA circuit despite running well in all of his starts here, but I think he could finally break through on this occasion. He was no match for a freakish performance from Dust Devil in the slop two back, and last time he was always out of position, caught in behind horses in upper stretch before rallying late. He was also facing a tougher field that day despite that being a claiming race and this a starter allowance. As long as the trip works out this time, I think he’ll be tough to hold off.
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 1,5,8