Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Fair Grounds form stronger than it appears for Killer Dress

Belmont | Race 7 | Post Time 4:08 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

I’m not enamored with a few of the fillies who could take money in this spot. One of those is Mopolka (#7), who has been in good form lately. However, she’s gotten a series of perfect trips in her victories, and she’s now moving up in class. Furthermore, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a faster pace this time with a few other speeds signed on, so she figures to have more company on the front end. 

A short price that I want to avoid completely is Summer in the City (#3). She returns from a lengthy layoff for Todd Pletcher after narrowly breaking her maiden last June at Gulfstream. While she achieved that victory at the maiden special weight level, it was a relatively weak race for that condition. Furthermore, in each of her last two starts, she’s benefited from very favorable trips stalking slow paces. Her top TimeformUS Speed Figure of 84 doesn’t make her much of a player in this field, and some of those turf events from last year haven’t aged well. Pletcher does do well off lengthy layoffs on turf, but this filly is going to attract plenty of support with Irad Ortiz named to ride. 

I prefer Fair Grounds invader KILLER DRESS (#2). This filly might actually be better than her running lines indicate. She showed some promise in her first couple of starts before getting rained off the grass in her 3-year-old debut. She got her first major class test on Feb. 5 when facing a solid allowance field, but her trip didn’t work out. She was launching what looked like it might be a winning move up the rail at the top of the stretch before getting completely sawed off by some drifting rivals. She received class relief last time and rebounded nicely, deploying an impressive turn of foot to win a race where the pace mostly held together. And that performance was flattered when runner-up Hohohoho returned to cross the wire first in an allowance race here last week. She has a versatile running style and comes in with upside as a 3-year-old filly meeting older rivals. 

I would also use fellow 3-year-old Rose E Holiday (#9) with her in exotics. She ran well in her turf debut a few weeks ago. This might be a tougher race for the same level but she should be a square price again.

THE PLAY

Win: 2

Exacta Key Box: 2 with 7,8,9

Trifecta: 2 with 7,9 with 5,7,8,9

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