The horse to beat in this New York-bred allowance affair is obviously Bankers Daughter (#10), but she’s not the easiest horse to trust after she was pulled up in her most recent start. She didn’t break that alertly and just never seemed to be racing in the bridle before Dylan Davis pulled the plug at the quarter pole. It’s somewhat concerning that she now hasn’t been seen for over 3 months since then, but she is returning at the same level. If she can rebound to any semblance of her prior form she’s going to be tough for this field to handle, as it’s not the toughest allowance race for this level.
I want to try to beat her with the quickly improving RAINBOW GAL (#6). I had liked this filly out of her debut when she ran deceptively well, closing belatedly after a rough start. She broke more alertly second time out but was unfortunate to catch one of the fastest $25k maiden claimers of the entire winter meet on Mar. 5. She was a shrewd claim out of that race by Orlando Noda, who subsequently moved her up in class and broke her maiden earlier this month. While she was again only defeating maiden claimers in that Apr. 11 race, she did so in impressive fashion, overcoming a slow start to win by open lengths in another fast time for the level. She may have to improve again to defeat an in-form Bankers Daughter, but Orlando Noda is a solid 8 for 40 (20%, $3.20 ROI) coming off wins on dirt, including 2 for 5 off maiden wins within that sample. Jose Ortiz abandons this filly for Electric Youth, but Joel Rosario is more than an ample substitute.
Underneath I would also want to include Cheatham Hill (#3) at a big price. I know this filly has had many chances at this level but she’s earned competitive speed figures on occasion. Her last race is also better than it seems as it appeared that Luis Cardenas’s saddle slipped early in the race, so he couldn’t ride her properly. She may appreciate the turnback.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,7,10
Trifecta: 6,10 with 6,10 with 3,7,8