The two fillies likely to attract the most support in this finale are the 4-year-old Love That Face (#2) and the 3-year-old Big Tony’s Girl. The former may merely need to repeat her solid second place effort at this level on Feb. 12, in which she fell just a length short after setting the pace. However, she only earned a modest 75 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, and now she’s meeting a deeper field which includes a few 3-year-olds with greater upside. Furthermore, she’s never been the most reliable runner, and that most recent runner-up finish followed a series of poor efforts.
I prefer Big Tony’s Girl (#5), who faces older rivals for the first time after hitting the board in each of her prior three starts against claiming company. While she was beaten by a substantial margin finishing third at this level last time, she was compromised by a two- to three-wide trip on Feb. 14, a day that featured a significant rail bias. She had previously run he same 75 TimeformUS Speed Figure as Love That Face earned when she was second two back on Jan. 23, and she arguably has more upside than that foe. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick figures to be an even better price.
RAINBOW GAL (#6) debuted against tougher $40k maiden claiming foes on Jan. 30. She broke very awkwardly at the back of the pack, spotting the field several lengths in the opening jumps. She eventually straightened herself out and was staying on well in the lane, passing rivals as the field crossed the wire. That performance was flattered when winner Shaker Shack returned to finish a good second against winners in her next start with an improved speed figure, and another runner has returned to win. I expect a step forward in her second start for Bruce Levine, who has been on a roll at Aqueduct. Levine has finished in the exacta with 10 of 18 starters in the past month, with 5 of those winning.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,5
Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with 2,3,7,8