Aqueduct | Race 5 | Post Time 3:25 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs | Not already a TimeformUS member? Sign up 

Invaluable (#7) is a deserving favorite as she moves back up to this N1X condition after defeating starter allowance foes last time. The last time she ran at this level she just missed to subsequent Grade 3 stakes winner Mrs. Danvers, and two back she ran exceptionally well against males when second to today’s third race favorite Tenderfoot. She finally go back to the winner’s circle last time going six furlongs, defeating today’s rival Sirenic. As long as she holds her form, she’s going to be tough for this field to handle. The only knock is that she’s going to be a pretty short price as an obvious standout in this field.

Sirenic (#2) is an alternative that some may consider based on how well she ran last time, winning a starter allowance event by over 9 lengths. However, she benefited from a very strong rail bias on Feb. 8, getting to the lead and the rail soon after the start. She could be the speed again this time, but she’s struggled over wet tracks before and was no match for others in this race in prior outings. I want to lean in a different direction.

FOREVER CHANGED (#1) has tried this level in each of her last two starts. She ran well to be second two back in the mud, putting forth an effort that gives her a chance here. She regressed last time, but she was taken too far off the pace early in a race that was dominated on the front end with slow early fractions. She never had a chance to make up much ground and should rebound with a more aggressive ride here. She’s also run well over wet surfaces in the past.

The other horse that I would use is Glass Ceiling (#5), who ran very well two and three back before disappointing as the favorite last time. She also likes it wet and has the tactical speed to work out a fair trip.

THE PLAY

Win: 1

Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,6,7

Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with 2,4,5,6