Lottie’s Mizzion (#1A) is the horse to beat as she moves up in class following a fairly easy victory at the N2L claiming level last time out. This filly had shown some promise when she broke her maiden last fall and was hardly disgraced despite getting beaten a long way by subsequent G3 Go For Wand winner Sharp Starr in a New York-bred allowance event. While the drop in class last time was fairly drastic, this is where she belongs. She got to stalk a moderate pace last time before taking over, and she figures to encounter yet another favorable setup here. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that she could be on the lead in a scenario favoring the front-runner. As long as she holds her form off the claim for Charlton Baker, she’ll be tough to beat.
Yet I want to take a shot against the favorite with her main rival WICKED TITLE (#3). This filly already has experience at this $14k N3L level where she’s run well. She was a little unlucky to lose her first try for this condition on Nov. 12 when she made a strong late rally to just miss after going wide on the turn. She didn’t get a particularly comfortable trip two back, but she rebounded nicely last time. She was hindered by an awkward start in that Jan. 15 race, and was further compromised by trying to close over a racetrack that was favoring speed due to windy conditions. All things considered, she did well to get up for second in a race that featured a slow pace and she likely would have won if given a fair trip. I’m not overly concerned about the stretch-out to a mile, and she has more tactical speed than she’s displayed in recent starts.
Exacta: 3 with 1,2,7
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 2,4,7