Fresco (#5) may finally break through this level by sheer attrition, as she seems to have found a favorable field this time. While I’m getting a little tire of her losing at short prices, I do acknowledge that she ran quite well within the context of her last race. The pace was fast and contested, and she made an early move to take the lead at mid-stretch before getting run down from behind by a filly who closed from last. With a slightly better-timed ride, she might have won that day, so she figures to benefit from this jockey switch to Joel Rosario. The only negative is that her price will likely be even shorter now that she has both Clement and Rosario in her corner. I prefer her to the other horses exiting that Nov. 8 affair.
Summer At the Spa (#10) couldn’t beat her last time so I can’t see her turning the tables here. Perhaps Canarsie Angel (#1) is worth another shot after setting that fast pace last time, but she gets tested for class and won’t be much of a price as part of a couple entry. I think the best alternative to Fresco may be one of the wild cards.
ASTORIA KITTEN (#3) may just be off form at this point, as her last couple of efforts have been poor. And even when she was at the top of her game earlier this summer she still had trouble breaking through this level. However, she’s a horse that I’ve always wanted to see turned back in distance. She just doesn’t strike me as a true router, as she always quits in the last furlong of her races. Her dam has primarily produced one-turn horses, including talented sprinters Rectify and Satisfy. Furthermore, the often streaky Danny Gargan barn, which had been somewhat quiet through the fall, has been winning more races lately, going 7 for 15 over the past three weeks.
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,10
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with 1,2,9,10