The likely short prices in this maiden claiming finale don’t do much for me. Another Shot (#11) looks pretty logical at first glance. Yet this colt hasn’t really run any faster than some others sprinting and it’s not clear that added distance is supposed to help him based on his pedigree.
Among the favorites, Wicked Easy (#4) is slightly more appealing. He began his career on turf, and didn’t run that badly either time while never threatening. He was sent off as the favorite when switched to the dirt at Finger Lakes and rallied steadily after a slow start. All of his siblings, including stakes winner More Mischief, have been best on dirt, so perhaps this is where his future lies. I’ll use him, but I prefer a couple of others.
Mindfreak (#7) strikes me as one that should take a step forward on the class drop. He had no chance to close into a moderate pace going 6 furlongs on turf in his debut, and last time he found himself in a pretty salty maiden event for the level, as winner Work Out earned a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Furthermore, fifth-place finisher Re Created (beaten 27 lengths) returned to win here last weekend with a 76. Mike Maker is 14 for 42 (33%, $2.36 ROI) with 2-year-olds going from maiden special weight to maiden claiming races on dirt over the past 5 years.
He’s a major part of my play, but the horse that intrigues me most is MAKE IT IN NY (#1). That 35-length debut defeat looks dismal, even for this field, but there may be reasons to give him a closer look. He was very sluggish early in that debut, immediately losing contact with the field. Junior Alvarado applied some token early pressure and then just sat there, appearing to ease the horse. Yet at about the three-sixteenths pole, Junior shook him up and asked him for run, and the horse suddenly took off. Trakus indicates he ran his final sixteenth in 5.80 seconds (the equivalent of a 23.2 quarter). The fact that he put in no effort for the first part of the race contributed to that fast final split, but this horse may possess more ability than the result indicates. Now he drops in class against a weak field, and returns as a new gelding.
Exacta Box: 1,4,7
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 9,10,11