High Tide (#4) is the horse to beat after finishing second when last seen at this level in October at Belmont. He just got run down in the late stages going 11 furlongs in an effort that represented a marked improvement upon his disappointing return from a yearlong layoff at Saratoga. He was flattered when last-out winner Compliant returned to just miss at the N1X level here last weekend while improving his TimeformUS Speed Figure by 4 points. High Tide will have to cut back to 1 1/8 miles here, but that’s not a major concern for a horse who appears to possess some tactical speed. He seems dangerous for the red-hot Todd Pletcher barn. I’m using the favorite prominently, but I’m more interested in a horse exiting a different race.
BAY STREET MONEY (#7) showed promise for Jimmy Jerkens early in his career before tailing off a bit and getting dropped in for a tag two back. He was claimed out of that race by Rob Atras and made his first start for the new barn last time going a mile. That race featured a lack of early speed and was run over a course that was strongly biased towards horses that rode the rail. That made gate-to-wire winner Winters Back nearly impossible to run down, and compromised Bay Street Money, who worked out a two- to three-wide trip. Being slightly off the rail might not sound like such a big deal, yet many horses who got similar trips to Bay Street Money finished far back in their races on November 6 and 7. I expect him to improve over a fair track, and he figures to relish the slight stretch-out to 9 furlongs.
I would also include second time starter Royale (#9), who moves up in class after an encouraging debut, and Dreams of Tomorrow (#12), who gets one more chance on turf after showing some ability early in his career.
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,9,12
Trifecta: 7 with 4,12 with 4,5,9,12