Caldee (#7) is obviously the horse to beat in this strong edition of the Chelsey Flower. She was very impressive breaking her maiden at Saratoga in her second career start, and she validated that performance in the Miss Grillo last time. Losing to the undefeated Plum Ali is no disgrace, and Caldee had to pick up the pace through some quick interior fractions before settling for second. I think she’s pretty good and she could have a significant pace advantage in a race where most of her primary competitors are closers.
I’ll certainly her use her prominently, but my top pick is the Bill Mott second-time starter LOVESTRUCK (#10). This filly missed a planned start in the Miss Grillo, but apparently got over that issue quickly, as she’s back in the entries just a month later. She has a regal pedigree, being a half-sister to Scat Daddy sired by Tapit. Her debut was excellent, as she won handily despite the fact that she was extremely green. She broke inward from the start, forcing herself steady, and still didn’t look like she knew what she was doing in the lane even as she mowed down the leader. Mott doesn’t have great statistics with horses coming off debut wins, but I think this talented filly could be an exception to that pattern.
Ingrassia (#4) also makes some sense after finishing third in the Jessamine. While the pace of that race may seem quick, it was dominated towards the front end, and she was one of the only horses to make a significant run from the back of the pack.
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,4,7,8
Trifecta: 7,10 with 7,10 with 3,4,6,8