Ms Boombastic (#5) is the horse to beat as she drops in for a tag for the first time. She has earned superior speed figures in her turf races and may just appreciate the class relief. However, I don’t view her as a horse who has to win this race. While she only lost by 1 1/2 lengths last time, she never really looked like she was in the mix for a top prize. Junior Alvarado gave her a good ride, saving ground on the turns before angling out, and she just couldn’t make up ground late even as a few of her rivals encountered traffic to her inside. I’m using her but I think others will offer better value.
I could understand making cases for horses like Jazzy Lady (#3) or She Throws Heat (#8), both of whom have a right to improve off their turf efforts as younger horses now that they’re returning from layoffs. However, I am against the second choice Baseline Drive (#2). This filly made no impact when facing a weak field at Monmouth last time and just hasn’t done much running in any of her turf races.
I want to go in a different direction so I’ve landed on WICKED HAPPY (#1). I tried this filly last time and she just wasn’t quite good enough. While that was just a $40,000 maiden claimer, I thought it was just as tough a spot as this one, so it’s not like she’s moving up in class. She also may benefit from a more aggressive ride as she breaks from the rail going 1 1/8 miles, which is typically an advantage on the inner course. The Pace Projector indicates that she should make the lead here and I don’t anticipate her having any trouble with the distance given how well she ran against a tougher field going 11 furlongs two back.
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5,8
Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 2,3,4,8