Dunbar Road (#2) is widely regarded as one of the leaders of this division, so it is expected that she will win this Beldame en route to a start in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. However, I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that she’ll handle this field. Her speed figures don’t suggest that she has any edge over this field whatsoever, and this by far the toughest field that she’s met so far in 2020. Furthermore, she had a setback after the Delaware Handicap, so her preparation for this race has not been ideal. I think she can win, but I believe she’s a terrible bet as the prohibitive favorite.
The Pace Projector is predicting that LETRUSKA (#1) will be on a clear early lead, and I just think that makes her very dangerous. This filly has significantly improved this year as a 4-year-old, and she’s always a threat to lead throughout when she gets to a lonely lead. She ran a good field off their feet in the Shuvee last time, setting a punishing pace for 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga before holding sway late. A one-turn configuration is probably better for her and she’s not supposed to get any pressure up front this time.
I also wouldn’t totally dismiss Horologist (#5), who ran a massive speed figure two back in the Molly Pitcher. She wasn’t able to compete with Monomoy Girl last time, but she was hardly disgraced in defeat and she possesses the tactical speed to get the jump on the favorite.
Exacta: 1 with 2,4,5