Basquiat (#5) will probably win this race if he runs back to his turf debut, in which he made a solid late rally to just miss second in a race that was wired on the front end. He was also never on the rail, going 3-wide around the second turn when launching his rally. All things considered, I thought it was a fine effort for his turf debut and this is probably a weaker field than he met last time. I’m using him prominently, but there are definitely some others to consider.
From a class standpoint, I suppose Irish Mias (#6) and Plot the Dots (#3) make some sense coming out of that Jersey Derby at Monmouth. That’s proven to be a solid race and Plot the Dots in particular ran pretty well that day, as he made a wide run on the second turn before flattening out. They’re both intriguing but I wanted to go in a different direction.
The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the runner on or near the lead, and the horse who figures to control the pace is TURN OF EVENTS (#12).
This horse doesn’t look good enough at first glance, but we need to read between the lines a little. His maiden victory at Saratoga came against claiming company but it was a solid effort, as he turned back the improving Glynn County to get the job done in decent time. After that his connections entered him three times at Saratoga in progressively tougher spots – a starter allowance, an N1X, and then the Saranac – yet scratched each time for different reasons. They ultimately shipped him to Kentucky Downs to sprint, which was just the wrong spot as he got outrun early and found plenty of trouble midway through the race. Now he’s back at an appropriate distance and one would expect improvement given the ambitious placements at Saratoga last month.
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 3,5,6
Trifecta: 5,12 with 5,12 with 2,3,4,6