This is arguably the most wide open race on the card, as you can make a valid case for every single runner entered for turf. Eye of a Soldier (#5) and Lashara (#8) each figure to attract support after battling for second behind impressive winner Duopoly last time. Yet both got decent ground-saving trips and just couldn’t make much of an impact late. I’m using them, but I think others will offer better value.
Mary’s France (#2) has some appeal as she makes her U.S. debut for Graham Motion, who has excellent statistics in this situation. However, her overseas form doesn’t appear to be that strong and I’m concerned she could get overbet in this spot.
My top pick is last-out maiden winner WINDFALL PROFIT (#1). She’s stepping up in class after beating a weaker field last time, but it feels like this daughter of Malibu Moon has just turned a corner for Shug McGaughey. She was a dominant winner last time, traveling well throughout despite racing wide before easily drawing off in the lane under minimal encouragement. She’s trained forwardly out of that race and has the tactical speed to work out a favorable trip in this paceless affair.
At a bigger price I would also use Fetching (#6), who is an interesting claim by Mertkan Kantarmaci. She was in solid form earlier this year going shorter and has just been in the wrong spots in her last two starts. The stretch-out and lack of pace in this race could work to her advantage.
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,6,8
Trifecta: 1 with 5,6 with ALL