Blowout (#4) may go favored as she returns from a layoff and makes her 4-year-old debut for Chad Brown. She was originally scheduled to race in the De La Rose last month but had to be withdrawn from that race due to a slight setback. She now seems to be back on track and will be difficult for this field to handle if she steps forward at all with natural maturity. I’m using her prominently, and I prefer her to the other Chad Brown trainee, Catch a Bid (#5). This filly got a good trip stalking a moderate pace in the De La Rose but was pretty disappointing as she faded in the late stages.
The horse I would rather take out of that race is Clara Peeters (#3), who was held up in some light traffic at the quarter pole and couldn’t work her way into the clear until it was too late. I don’t think she was ever winning that race, but she may have finished closer had her rider elected to loop the field. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which seems a little optimistic given the way races are usually ridden on this circuit, but she does figure to get at least an honest setup.
I’m not so concerned about the pace for my top pick SWEET BYE AND BYE (#6). This mare appears capable of utilizing any running style, and is versatile enough to compete over a variety of distances. She put forth a very strong effort in her return going just 5 1/2 furlongs last time, closing from mid-pack to just miss in a race where the pace held together. Looking at Trakus, she ran the fastest final quarter-mile of anyone in the field (21.99 seconds). A mile looks like a perfect distance for her and she may be somewhat overlooked due to the fact her capable trainer is winless on the year.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 3,4 with 1,3,4,5