Typically I’d be reluctant to advocate for a likely favorite in a race as competitive as this Lake Placid, but I just can’t get past CAT’S PAJAMAS (#8). She’s the quintessential “last time was the time” kind of horse, as you got odds of 7-1 and 27-1 on her in her last two victories, and now she’s going to be among the shortest prices. That said, I have to assess her based on her form today, rather than my past perceptions of her. She’s just a different filly on the turf, and she’s won her last two races with something left in the tank. The margin was only a half-length last time, but she never looked like a loser. She got a good trip, but her tactical speed allows her to make her own luck.
Today’s rival Lashara (#3) took a shot at her late after having to extricate herself from traffic in upper stretch, but that filly was never getting to Cat’s Pajamas in the late stages. Cat’s Pajamas seems far more likely of these two horses to step forward with the 1 1/8 miles distance. Furthermore, there isn’t any speed signed on in this spot and Cat’s Pajamas should be able to either make the lead or track her uncoupled stablemate Blame Debbie (#2). I think that gives her a significant advantage over main rivals, all of whom have very little speed.
Speaktomeofsummer (#1) was compromised by a slow pace against a tougher field in the Wonder Again last time, but she could have similar troubles today. Stunning Sky (#6) comes in with some of the best speed figures, but she figures to be last early and passing them all could be a tall order if they go slowly up front.
Exacta: 8 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 8 with 1,6 with 1,2,3,4,6