Sadie Lady’s (#3) first start off the trainer change to Rob Atras was pretty disappointing, but she basically lost all chance at the start. She found herself back in last after breaking awkwardly and was just never in position to be competitive thereafter. She had a legitimate excuse that day, and I wouldn’t hold her last turf race against her either, since she got embroiled in a ridiculously fast pace. Sadie Lady’s prior form was solid, and while she may be a bit better on turf, she’s run competitive speed figures on dirt before.
Some may perceive her main rival to be Cape Cod Diva (#4) off her victory at the N2L claiming level last month. Yet, that was a weak field and her main rival Wisconsin Night returned to bomb as the odds-on choice next time. While that last race may suggest that she should have been running on dirt all along, she still has to prove herself against a legitimate field of dirt horses.
My top pick is COUNTABLE (#5) as she makes her second start off the layoff. She wasn’t exactly beating the toughest field at Finger Lakes last time, but she was game to earn the victory in a fight to the finish. Prior to that she had achieved some respectable results in her first few dirt sprint attempts at Aqueduct, and has some foundation to build upon that form now. Notably, Linda Rice is 8 for 15 (53%, $3.12 ROI) with last-out winners making their second start after layoffs of 120 to 240 days in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. Additionally, Rice has fantastic statistics with blinker additions in general. There are plenty of reasons to expect Countable will improve here and she figures to offer fair value.
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,6
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with ALL