Fair Regis (#1) is obviously the horse to beat as she drops down out of stakes company into this New York-bred allowance affair. The slight cutback in distance should also benefit her, since 7 furlongs has always been just slightly out of her ideal range. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be forwardly placed from the inside stalking the pair of Filibustin and Kept True and she might just be able to run past those foes in the lane. However, she’s going to be a pretty short price here based on her recent company lines and I don’t think she actually ran that much better than the other mare exiting that New York Stallion Series Stakes last time.
BLUEGRASS JAMBOREE (#3) finished 4 lengths behind Fair Regis, but she got a completely different trip – a pretty perplexing one at that. Bluegrass Jamboree has always shown plenty of tactical speed in her races and typically makes a run from just off the pace when she’s successful. Therefore, it was pretty curious that Joel Rosario made the decision to rein her in from the start last time and reserve her at the back of the pack. That move seemed even more counterintuitive when the fractions were posted, as the pace was on the slow side. And beyond conventional pace dynamics, that was a time on the main track when it was difficult to close through kickback, so it seems especially odd that Bluegrass Jamboree would have been ridden in such a fashion.
Now she’s making her second start off the layoff and she’s placed at a realistic level. While I don’t expect her to get back to her smashing victory on Feb. 9 last year, since she rode a gold rail that day, she still has other races that would make her a serious rival for Fair Regis, and she’s going to be a much better price this time.
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 1,6 with 1,2,4,5,6