Maedean (#2) is simply the horse to beat off her last two efforts. She got a great trip to break her maiden two back and then improved on that effort when taking down the Grade 3 Tempted last time. In both of starts, she earned TimeformUS Speed Figures that are among the highest in this field. The stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles is not supposed to be an issue given her pedigree, and she’s drawn a great post position. As long as she continues to move forward, she’s going to be a handful.
Her main rival Alandra (#5) won what appeared to be a live maiden race at Saratoga in her debut. It’s always significant when Shug McGaughey runners win first time out, as they tend to go on to do nice things from there. She completely altered her running style in the Alcibiades and that may have worked against her. She probably can do better than that, but she’s going to take plenty of money even though she hasn’t yet run as fast as some of her main rivals.
Lake Avenue (#12) earned the highest TimeformUS Speed Figure in this field when walloping a small group of maidens by over 12 lengths last time. Now she stretches out for the first time, and she’s bred to handle added ground. However, she had no luck with the post position draw.
My top pick is DAPHNE MOON (#10), who also drew a wide post but figures to take back from there. She overcame a poor start to circle the field and win going away over a demanding 7 furlongs in her Saratoga debut. She was understandably was bet down to 3-1 odds in the Grade 1 Frizette subsequently, but another poor break compromised her chances in a race dominated on the front end. That performance isn’t nearly as bad as it seems, and she feels like one who should continue improving with added ground. The Pace Projector is predicting she’ll get a fast pace to close into.
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,2,5,6,12
Trifecta: 2,10 with 2,10 with 1,5,6,9,11,12