The likely favorite, Crazy Life (#3), comes in with decent form, but he’s had his chances and hasn’t exactly impressed in either of his turf starts this year. He was only beaten a length by Waynes Footsteps last time, and that runner did come back to win at the same level next time. This gelding hasn’t been seen for three months since that most recent start, but this barn does great off layoffs. If he merely maintains his form he’ll be a major player once again.
In searching for an alternative, many are likely to gravitate towards the new face, Kingfish (#4). This second time starter ran like a horse who badly needed his debut first time out, only hitting his best stride late after a sluggish start, and that’s not atypical for this barn. However, Linda Rice is just 2 for 19 (11%, $0.78 ROI) with maiden second time starters in turf routes over 5 years. This colt does have pedigree to handle the surface, but has quite a bit of ground to make up.
I prefer one of the rivals with proven turf form, and I think JIMMY JAZZ (#6) makes a lot of sense in this spot. His connections are probably making the right move by giving him one more chance at this maiden special weight level, since he’s actually good fit for this race. His overall turf form is some of the best in this field, and he only did so poorly last time because his rider didn’t make use of his tactical speed. He actually did better than the result would indicate in that appearance after getting shuffled back on the far turn. The connections have toyed with the idea of running for a tag since then, but Jimmy Jazz still has a chance to break through this level if he merely maintains his form.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4,7
Trifecta: 6 with 3,4,7 with 2,3,4,7