The two runners likely to vie for favoritism in this NY-bred N1X allowance are Financialstability (#2) and Turbulence (#4). The former is stretching out in distance for the first time after losing his initial try against winners, as the 1-2 favorite, last month at Belmont. He’s not going to be quite that short a price this time, but he figures to be strongly supported again and I still have some questions about this runner’s overall quality. He earned a respectable speed figure when he broke his maiden two back at Saratoga, but it’s not as if his pedigree is strongly suggesting that he’s supposed to get better with added distance.
Turbulence is perhaps more untrustworthy as he returns from an 8-month layoff. He was brilliant in his most recent appearance, destroying a group of maidens by over 10 lengths. However, he’s needed long breaks between each start and now he’s switching into the barn of Linda Rice. I’ll use him defensively, but it’s hard to know exactly what we’re going to get from him.
I believe this race is more wide open than it might appear at first glance, so I’m taking a shot against the short prices with PIPES (#6). His recent form is slower and cheaper than many of his rivals, but I think he’s run better than it seems in some of his dirt performances. I like this slight turnback to a one-turn mile and he ran well over this course and distance last winter. Yet, what really makes him appealing is the claim by Rudy Rodriguez, who is 30 for 70 (43%, $2.71 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes at Aqueduct over the past 5 years. Furthermore, Pipes has the speed to be forwardly placed, which is the running style you want at Aqueduct, and he’s drawn well outside.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,4,8
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,3,4,8