Two of the main players in this allowance affair participated in the Grade 2 Prioress over the summer at Saratoga. Kept True (#4) may go favored here despite finishing last that day, as she had won both of her prior starts as a 3-year-old, albeit against New York-bred company. I’m using her defensively, but some others are more intriguing.
The other Prioress participant BREAK CURFEW (#2) is where I’ve landed. This filly actually did well to hang on for fourth that day after chasing the very fast Break Even around the track. That 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure should be good enough to win this race. Some may be deterred by her one effort since then, as she faded to finish last at Belmont. However, she never had a chance after stumbling after the start and failing to make the lead. Break Curfew has never shown a great affinity for wet tracks, so she should be forgiving for failing to produce her best form over that muddy surface last time. Now she’s moving to Aqueduct and a dirt surface that has been pretty kind to speed runners lately. The Pace Projector is predicting that she should vie for the front end with Alisio early in a situation favoring the front-runners. She’s my top pick, but I do respect that two fillies who finished ahead of her last time.
Alisio (#6) has obviously improved for Kiaran McLaughlin, though I wonder how much her last effort can be attributed to the wet track, which she seems to relish. The other one you want out of that race might be Concerned (#7), who got off to an even worse start than Break Curfew and had to adapt to a new running style, rallying from the back of the pack. She has a right to do better here with a clean break.
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,6,7
Trifecta: 2 with 4,6,7 with 4,5,6,7